Match Preview: Arsenal vs Manchester City

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Ok so we kick off our formidable fixtures list with a home game against City. Last time around at the Etihad in a 1-1 draw we were treated to a game of 2 halves, in which both teams stamped their authority on the match at different times. Let’s not sugar coat this, it will be a tough match for Arsenal to win and here’s hoping our tremendous record against City at home, continues to ring true.

This is however possibly the best time we could have to play City since they have many of their players out, both with injury and suspensions and also the African Cup. City will have to make do without Nasri, Kolo Toure, Aguero, Yaya Toure and Maicon. Unfortunately this does leave their defense pretty much intact but takes away from their physicality in midfield and creativity and finishing quality in attack. Arsenal meanwhile will have to make do with Gervinho which will be a terrible loss I’m sure and unfortunately maybe also Giroud who has a nasty cut over his knee thanks to a Swansea player stamping on him. Last time around it was very much a game of who could counter-attack better and somewhat amusingly, both goals were scored against the run of play. This time without the presence of Yaya Toure in midfield and the threat of Nasri on the wing, I would expect Arsenal to be able to assert some form of dominance over the middle and force City to play on the counter, rather than their usual tactic of short passing and possession in their opposition’s own half.

The defensive pairing for this match will be a big decision for Arsene Wenger and could play a crucial part in this match. On one hand we can play Mertesacker for his organisational abilities at the back, governing the offside trap and starting each attacking play, or we could bring in Koscielny since City possess players with good dribbling skills who could turn the slow German inside out, much like Aguero did to him last time. Given that City have scored over a quarter of their goals this season from set pieces, I would choose a partnership of Koscielny and Vermaelen, both for being able to stop tricky dribblers and because for some reason, both of these shorter players are better in the air than Mertesacker. I also think aside from the set pieces, one of the biggest threats we will face in this match will be Tevez’s movement and spontaneous shooting, so two players who are able to get tight to their markers and prevent shots on the turn will be ideal.

Attacking-wise, last time Wenger chose to use a striker with pace in behind their defensive line and deployed Ramsey at right wing to drift inwards and gain a man advantage in the midfield battle. I don’t expect this to change, though I feel Ramsey might be on the left wing this time, with Podolski coming off the bench in the second half, hopefully in the same explosive form as he was against Swansea City. With Giroud in doubt for this match, I expect Wenger to use Walcott as our striker and it remains to be seen if he’s physically tough enough to deal with the attentions of Nastasic and Kompany. I would expect Arsenal to attack mostly through the middle with Oxlade Chamberlain cutting in on the right at times to mix things up. I almost hope I’m wrong though as I’d like to see Podolski start this match, partnering with Gibbs and Ramsey on the right wing, with Oxlade held in reserve to use his pace and trickery to our advantage late in the match. The midfield trio is the key to success in this match, Arteta and Wilshere will surely have their hands full with Silva drifting in off his wing, looking to exploit any space and two volatile forwards like Balotelli and Tevez moving in and around our lines. Yet Cazorla can do the same at the other end of the pitch and unless City commit a Center Back to his movements, the City midfield may have a busy day as Cazorla is at his best, moving around and finding space even out on the wings and there’s no way he’ll just stay central in a match like this.

So overall, we have a good chance at this one, the real game changer in question is whether Mancini starts in a 4-5-1 as expected or his much-experimented 3-4-1-2, as this would change the entire dynamic of the game, for better or worse. It’s unlikely though and in the expected system this game would look to be a real arm wrestle in the center with neither having great options on the wing. Gibbs could be a deciding factor with his pacy bursts forward and Wenger’s decision on both his starting Center Half pairing and whether to start Podolski or hold him in reserve will dictate the tempo of the match, particularly in the first half. The other telling factor will be how well we deal with any set pieces they have, which also means not giving away fouls in dangerous areas of the pitch and defending corners properly.

Manchester City Dangermen: Well they’re all dangerous but the biggest threats will most likely be Tevez, Balotelli and Silva. And also Dzeko who I would expect to sub on in the second half and can be a real game changer.

Result Prediction: The similar pressures in midfield from the two teams, suggests a draw to me, I’d say 2-2 but hopefully we can nick a late win.

Predicted Lineup: Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Chamberlain, Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey, Cazorla, Walcott

Conclusion: Both teams will compete early for control of the middle, which could be quite a high tempo start. Expect only a few clear cut chances created by either side and a rather cagey affair until the first goal is scored with City playing on the counter and Arsenal breaking their teeth on City’s defensive line. Impact subs in the second half have the potential to blow the game wide open and make it a very exciting last 25 or so minutes. Who knows, maybe Giroud will be fit enough to sub in late and make an impact along with Podolski.

If you live near the Emirates, get down there and show the timid home support how to REALLY cheer on our team as it plays a major part to a team’s performance in a big match such as this. It will be a huge 3 points if we get them and considering the fixtures that await us, a real momentum boost. Come On You Gunners!

 

Match Review: Arsenal 7 – 3 Newcastle United, A Krul Day for Newcastle..

Arsenal v Newcastle United - Premier League

Oh god, it’s in the net again!

Wow, what a cracking match! While we may have just witnessed some of our best and worst football that we’ve played this season, there’s no denying that it was entertaining. As I discussed in my match preview, Newcastle unsuprisingly changed their formation to a 4-5-1 to better deal with the threat posed by our midfield trio. Before the 1st whistle this showed the respect they had for the capabilities of our midfield and as a direct result of the middle being stifled, both teams opted to attack through the wings, with much of Arsenal’s offense channeled through Podolski and Gibbs on the left. Weirdly both teams stood off each other and gave the players room to play and despite an early chance for Chamberlain, Newcastle had the better of the chances in the first half, while Arsenal were reduced to playing counter-attacking football and managed to take the lead with a good run and finish from Walcott after Podolski picked out his run. Podolski in particular was a constant threat to Newcastle but for all the movement down that wing it was still Newcastle creating more dangerous plays with the exception of their final passes.

Most uncharacteristically of late, both our fullbacks had a bad game defensively, with Sagna and Gibbs both caught out on multiple occasions. Koscielny also looked rusty after his time off injured and coughed up the ball several times, while Vermaelen by contrast was pretty consistent throughout. The goal we conceded before half time from a set piece, will go down as Wilshere’s fault for ducking and turning his head but with the recent head trauma suffered by Van Persie who can blame him? Wilshere’s a brave lad but he must’ve been fearing for his life after Ferguson’s revelations early in the week on the danger of a ball striking a players face. Clearly Newcastle’s players should be arrested for attempted manslaughter, first Van Persie, now Wilshere, who’s next? Back on topic, Szczesny’s setting of the wall could’ve been far better and this contributed to the goal along with Arsenal’s penchant for using the shortest players in the wall. Oh and maybe Wilshere will just cop the hit next time.

So on to the second half and this is where the game’s tempo suddenly jumped. Wenger must’ve told the players at half time to get tight to Newcastle’s players and deny them room to play because that’s exactly what they did and suddenly the momentum shifted. If not for some poor decision making from Wilshere and Walcott in the final third, Arsenal could’ve been out of sight within 15 minutes. Newcastle to their credit, refused to go quietly and despite 2 good goals from Arsenal the drew level twice, the first time through the most shambolic Arsenal defending I’ve seen in a while and the second time through a defensive error and a great finish.The most interesting stat in this match was the lack of involvement by Arteta, who had only 59 touches, his lowest all season. The other more worrying stat was the lack of support given to their fullback by either winger which contributed to the goals conceded. Offensively speaking though, Arsenal were irrepressible, Newcastle were on tired legs after playing United 3 days earlier but instead of empathy, Arsenal were ruthless. The sharks smelt blood in the water and went into a feeding frenzy.

Now while I’ve mentioned that the lack of early goals was partly to do with Wilshere and in particular Walcott’s poor choices in the final third, not all of this is his fault. With Walcott up top, Arsenal were playing a 4-2-3-1 and with Cazorla playing too far from the double pivot, Arsenal were not keeping possession enough in the middle of the pitch to create the sort of chances Walcott needed and in turn, Walcott was not dropping deep enough to help win the ball and dominate the midfield battle. That’s because if you were to typify Walcott in a forward role you would say he’s a Striker, not a Center Forward and therefore isn’t accustomed to dropping deep into the midfield from a central role. When Giroud was subbed on late, the effect was immediate. With Giroud dropping deeper and aiding Cazorla, Arsenal suddenly looked like a new team. Factor in Newcastle’s tiredness and it’s no wonder we ripped them apart in the final minutes and I wish to god Giroud’s third shot had gone in rather than hit the post but still, 6 touches of the ball for 3 shots, 2 on target and 2 goals is not a bad return for our sexy frenchman. But it was Walcott who will grab the spotlight for his hat-trick and 2 assists and it’s hard to argue with the quality of finishing(and 1 beautiful cross) on display for those 3 goals, though the same can be said for Giroud. There’s no doubt in my mind that Podolski’s technical solidity, workrate and attacking efforts in the first half wore Newcastle down but in the end the flood gates opened once Walcott shifted to the right wing and along with Giroud, their combined movement completely confused the defense and had Newcastle chasing shadows in the final phase of the match, ultimately destroying them. All in all this was a strange match with Newcastle playing the possession football and Arsenal for a change, playing a deadly counter-attacking strategy.

I realise it’s hard to criticise a team when they score 7 but with matches against both Manchester City and Chelsea looming in the New Year I feel I should highlight some problem areas made apparent in this game. Firstly the 2nd goal scored by Newcastle was catastrophically poor positioning in defense. This in-game shot shows you everything you need to know. Even before Sagna is beaten far too easily, Wilshere is caught out jogging back slowly rather than realising the problem and getting tight to the player in the middle Gibbs is marking and Gibbs is unaware of the unmarked player at the back post who scores a tap in uncontested.

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For the 3rd goal Gibbs was guilty of again leaving a player unmarked at the back post and despite a wonderful first time volley from Demba Ba, no striker should be given that kind of freedom. So onto the attacking errors we made. Or rather, the poor choices. The choice the player made is marked in red, while the green shows the choice they should’ve made and the player they needed to work with.

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It may not matter missing these chances when you stick 7 past your opponent but against a tougher team where chances are fewer, these kind of poor decisions will often hurt you on the scoreboard. Overall I think the players tried a little too hard to give thru balls to Walcott, Podolski sent several balls that resembled a missile in pace, whizzing his way, while Arteta made a few 50 yard long balls to him and in general the tactic didn’t work. The chemistry on the wings is also questionable. While Gibbs and Podolski doubtless work well together I have my suspicions about Chamberlain and Sagna as a partnership. I couldn’t help but notice during the match how Gibbs and Podolski would either give a back slap, high five or yell encouragement to each other whereas on the other wing when Chamberlain played a pass to where he thought Sagna would run he was rewarded with a “what the fuck” stare instead. I’m still not sold on Walcott up front despite the hat-trick and if anything I believe he is a good plan B to have. Wilshere’s lack of determination to shoot was frustrating yet again and our defensive efforts need to sharpen up a bit before we take on the big boys. I also feel it’s important that we keep Walcott during the summer transfer window, both for his ability and to prove that we can hold onto our players. Whether it be for playing as a striker or in his proper role on the right wing, I don’t care. Just sign the damn thing.walcott

Finally I’m disappointed that after 3 wins in a row, the home crowd were just as silent as ever. The sooner these useless yobs are thrown from their seats and replaced with boistrous, thunderously loud fans the better. Time now for the team to get ready for Southampton and dish out another thumping, Come On You Gunners!

And as always after a goal-fest, enjoy…

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Finally, is anyone else disturbed by this? :D

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Match Preview: Arsenal vs Newcastle United

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So the Toon Army is coming to the Emirates! And on the back of 3 wins in a row this is another must-win to get 3 valuable points before we head into an extremely torrid list of fixtures in January where it’s reasonable to expect we will drop a few points. By contrast to our recent form, Newcastle are not currently enjoying their season and with our team well rested thanks to a screwup with the trains at Christmas and with an energy sapping 3-4 loss to Manchester United just 3 days ago for the toons, now is the perfect time to hit them hard.

Newcastle’s suprisingly poor form this season owes a lot to what I call “Arsenalitis”. This is a condition where the team lacks proper depth and suffers injuries to several key players right when they go up against tough opposition. This usually leaves the team with less offensive power and a shaky back line. In Newcastle’s case they are missing the defensive solidity of Steve Taylor, the playmaking skills of Yohan Cabaye and the star quality of Hatem Ben Arfa on the left wing. So what does this mean for Arsenal? Well let’s look at how they like to play first of all. Newcastle have been favoring playing through the middle with Arfa out injured, they like to retain possession in their own half and attack fairly quickly, using either long balls or thru balls. I think the most telling factor in this match will be whether Alan Pardew opts for playing Newcastle’s standard 4-4-2 formation or the occasionally used 4-5-1 with Cisse on the right wing. Very few teams have dared to play more than one striker against Arsenal this season and most that have learned quickly that it is a mistake. Reading changed to a 4-5-1 after half time to stem the goal flow and even Manchester United who are the undisputed kings of playing 4-4-2 in the Premier League, changed to a 4-5-1 with Rooney dropping deeper to pick up Arteta and make life hard for our midfield.

The only team thus far this season to play a 4-4-2 against us somewhat successfully was Spurs and Adebayor’s stupidity ended that problem for us pretty early on. So if Newcastle do end up playing a 4-4-2 against us I predict that they’ll realise their error fairly early and switch to a 4-5-1 to try and nullify the effectiveness of our midfield trio. This isn’t bad news for us either way as it would mean taking Cisse away from our goalbox and leaving Demba Ba as the only main threat. It’s likely that the combined skills of Arteta, Wilshere and Cazorla will be too much for Newcastle’s midfield without Cabaye and I would expect their reaction to be sending even more long balls than normal towards Demba Ba, which is why it is vital to have either Vermaelen or Koscielny man-marking Ba and the wings and this provides a selection headache for Wenger. With Koscielny fit and rested, does he stay with the combination of Mertesacker and Vermaelen? Or does he instead play Vermaelen and Koscielny at the back. Newcastle have enjoyed good success this season by playing thru balls for Demba Ba and although they haven’t been great at beating a well organised offside trap, it only takes one to make you pay the price. Per Mertesacker’s greatest weakness is his lack of pace and against a team utilising this tactic he may not be the best choice at the back. He was caught out last match against Wigan in this manner, which we very nearly paid the price for and with Demba Ba taking the shot we probably would pay dearly. Mertesacker is also not as good in the air as Koscielny and since Newcastle will be attacking both with the aforementioned thru balls and also long balls I don’t see him as a great choice for this encounter although Arsene Wenger does suscribe heavily to the theory of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” when it comes to his defensive selections. This would be an even more dangerous selection if Newcastle choose to play a 4-4-2 and have both Cisse and Ba looking for thru balls.

Looking further forwards we can analyse where the potential for Newcastle’s destruction lies. Steve Taylor may be out but their defense are still a physical bunch and due to this I would expect Giroud to start up front, using his power and intelligent movement to break up their defense. Meanwhile on the right wing I would expect Walcott to start although this may not be our best avenue of attack, since he’ll be facing off against Davide Santon, a youngster who I regard as one of the best left backs in the league and certainly their most consistent defender. Without Ben Arfa supporting him the wing will be less dangerous to defend and if Walcott keeps a high line it’s possible he can be exposed but I think it’s far more practical to target Danny Simpson on the other wing and to this end I would hope to see both Gibbs and Podolski heavily involved in this match, particularly if they play the attack-minded Papiss Cisse as Simpson’s support in a 4-5-1 formation.

There’s no reason why we can’t also attack through the middle but I expect Newcastle to try and stifle the center since that will be their own avenue and as a result Cazorla will drift towards Podolski where the space will hopefully be. Defensively Newcastle have been poor of late and Wilshere’s bursts forward can certainly cause problems for them but the majority of play should be centered on crosses from the left wing unless Walcott decides to have “one of those days” and rip Santon apart. Overall I think both teams will score but as we tend to make less individual errors, have much fresher players and a tighter defense than Newcastle at the moment, I would expect Arsenal to emerge victorious at the final whistle. If Newcastle prove to be too fatigued to make a match of it, this is a game where Walcott’s pace in behind from the right could prove devastating. If the defense doesn’t get tight to him they will pay a hefty price.

Newcastle United Dangermen: Demba Ba and Cisse. Ba has been a big goal threat this season with 11 goals already and Cisse has the ability to turn on the skills at any time. Neither player must be underestimated or left unmarked in the box for a second.

Result Prediction: I think Arsenal’s offensive capability and lack of injuries to key players will give them the edge in this one. Both teams will probably score so  I’ll say 3-1 Arsenal.

Predicted Lineup: Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Walcott, Arteta, Wilshere, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud

Conclusion: Newcastle are tired from battling United just 3 days earlier. The Emirates crowd have been louder of late and on the back of 3 wins in a row, they should spur our boys on well. Expect an early battle for control of the middle with occasional wing attacks from Arsenal and thru balls towards Demba Ba. Once the game’s tempo is decided, Newcastle will most likely opt for a long ball game while Arsenal concentrate the majority of their attacking through the left side of the field. Right then, let’s get behind the team and enjoy the match, Come On You Gunners!

Match Review: Arsenal 5 – 2 Tottenham, A Red Letter Day in North London!

Well we can’t really complain about that! Although why can’t the Emirates be that loud every home game? Imagine that crowd support cheering on our lads each match, imagine what that could do for our confidence issues! It’s always nice to get one over on Spurs and to do it by the same 5-2 scoreline as last time is just, delicious. While Wenger deployed the lineup I had anticipated in my preview, Villas Boas pulled a few suprises firstly by choosing to play a 4-4-2 formation to give more width and apply pressure on Arteta and Wilshere man to man, then also by benching Dempsey for Adebayor and Friedel for Lloris while bringing Vertonghen central and starting Naughton on the wing. The biggest problem for us initially however was how physical Sandro played in the center, bullying our midfielders and committing many cynical fouls to break up play and destroy any rhythm we were trying to build. I can’t fault him for doing this we have our own smiling assassin in Arteta who’s a master at giving away cheeky innnocent fouls without being booked and effectively stopping the opposition’s attacking opportunity. Speaking of Arteta, he was once again targeted and closed down to an extent before the red card which changed the game and this double pivot still needs a lot of work before we get it going. I do believe if Adebayor hadn’t been sent off then Sandro may have found himself on a yellow pretty early in the match and this would’ve definitely impacted his influence in this match and allowed Arteta more freedom.

It’s also getting increasingly annoying to watch our team take to the field as if they just rolled out of bed. Once again we conceded early on thanks to this, Sagna was caught too high up the pitch and Mertesacker was easily turned by Defoe. Looking at the match, Koscielny and Mertesacker while being an effective pairing, played very much as a left and right Center Back, meaning they rarely crossed over. I think it was a tactical error to do this as it meant that Defoe could use his pace and trickery to target Mertesacker as a weakness. In most games Koscielny plays as the interception player and Mertesacker as the anchor and offside marker but for some strange reason this didn’t happen. If instead Koscielny had been given the task of man-marking Defoe I believe we could’ve prevented the 1st goal as he would’ve had the pace and agility to track Defoe’s movement, while Mertesacker vs Adebayor would’ve been a ‘battle of the tallest‘. These heat charts show what I mean by saying they kept to one side.

It’s almost a shame that Adebayor was sent off(and rightfully so) because I think Arsenal were beginning to get into the game. I’d feel more sorry for him if the idiot hadn’t once again jumped over the barriers to piss off the Emirates crowd after scoring the opener. His sending off was to blame for the 1st goal we scored certainly since there’s no way Mertesacker would’ve ventured that high up the pitch to score from a header if there’d still been an extra man on the pitch to mark but whether they had 11 or 10, Giroud’s movement upfront was excellent and gradually undid the discipline in Spur’s backline. He either bullied them or pulled them out of position with his intelligent movement as if they were puppets on strings and at times he was damn near unplayable for the likes of Gallas,Vertonghen and Dawson. Theo Walcott’s movement and determination on the right was also great although a lot of credit must be given to Sagna for his support role. Sagna had a poor game defensively but going forwards, Naughton was simply overrun on this wing and not at all helped by the fact Gareth Bale refused to drop deep to help defend and seemed content to sulk on the half way line when not in possession. Adebayor being sent off made it hard enough for Spurs without Bale making it seem like they only had 9 players in defense. Vermaelen on the left wing also played a very solid game at left back, aided by Podolski’s defensive efforts and in general he kept Lennon pretty quiet throughout the match. It’s really encouraging to see Vermaelen play well there as I fear that with Gibbs’ injury now pronounced “long term” we will be seeing him play there a lot. The fact that in this match he started to play wide makes me optimistic for the future that he might just be able to work in this role and with a growing chemistry with Podolski, turn the left wing once more into the major attacking threat it was at the start of the season. It will also mean that Koscielny remains partnered with Mertesacker in the center and that can only be a good thing.

The major worrying thing in this game that was very noticeable in the second half was Arsenal’s inability to simply CLOSE DOWN THE MATCH. I’d rather win 3-1 than concede another bloody goal. Wilshere was a necessary driving force in the 1st half but I breathed a sigh of relief when Wenger subbed him off for Ramsey after we conceded yet another goal. It seemed blatantly obvious that at halftime AVB chose to switch to a 3-4-2 and chase the game back to a draw. Tottenham were now setup to press and counter-attack us and while it may have blown up in his face, the tactic worked to a certain degree and had it not been for those late goals before halftime we may have been in for a close match. When the opposition has an explosive player like Gareth Bale you simply cannot play full throttle the way Arsenal chose to. They were queuing up to score and meanwhile leaving massive gaps in the defensive lines, one of which Bale took advantage of with a good finish. Arsenal needed to keep their heads and simply keep possession in midfield, pass the ball around without trying to force a chance on goal and keep Spurs chasing shadows.Wilshere was still pushing ever forwards instead of dropping back to help Arteta keep possession(the impetuous nature of youth!)  and Wenger bringing on Ramsey who is embarrassingly almost a veteran player for us at 21 years of age, was a tactical masterstroke that calmed the midfield down and helped us keep our heads. Some will complain that he slowed our attack down and cost us more goals but that’s exactly what Wenger wanted, further reinforced by taking off Giroud and signalling the end of the attack, even if Chamberlain didn’t take the hint and pushed too hard. For the ones still moaning that we could’ve scored more goals if not for players like Ramsey and Santos coming on, slowing down our play and keeping possession is the reason we scored a 5th. Spurs were forced to chase the ball, come out of their defensive shell and make mistakes which we then effectively counter-attacked them on when Chamberlain stole the ball for Walcott’s final nail in the coffin goal.

So overall I’m happy with the team performance, Giroud was a beast(my MOTM) and just gets better with every game like a rough cut diamond that you just keep shaping and polishing to greater levels of perfection. Wilshere worked fairly well in the double pivot with Arteta but still isn’t dropping deep enough to help Arteta with his defensive duties for my liking although with Spurs a man down and still returning to fitness I can understand this to an extent. Arteta meanwhile was his usual metronomic self despite being obviously targeted by Spurs and every other team we’ve faced recently and he still had 118 touches to Wilshere’s 45 with a higher passing accuracy of 89% to 81%. Perhaps we should spend this summer’s transfer budget on a shiny cybernetic body for Diaby? He really was the perfect compliment to Arteta in the pivot. Vermaelen showed promising signs in the role of left back, finally playing wide(although not all the way  to the corner flag yet) and allowing Podolski to shine as an inside winger once more. Santos also acquitted himself well in the left winger position, something I’ve been trying to encourage for awhile now and Walcott continued to make his case for a higher wage with a great performance. Koscielny was his usual beasty self at the back, ice cold with no mistakes and I think the entire back line drew confidence from having Szczesny back in goal, already achieving a better distribution accuracy than Mannone has managed, although Vermaelen’s heavy backpass in the first half was a bit concerning! He nearly bloody scored..

So I’ll leave you with some happy images from the game and videos of the goals while we look forward to our mid-week appointment with Montpellier to automatically qualify from our Champions League Group. Until then enjoy the win and COYG!

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Match Preview: North London Derby!

Here we go again, our lily-white nemesis is coming to the Emirates to enjoy our hostilities for the duration of 90 minutes. The best thing about the long standing hatred between the two sides is that our home crowd support might actually make some noise for a change and incite our team into a great showing. This derby is somewhat marred by the sheer amount of players on both teams that are set to miss out on playing through injury. Arsenal have Gervinho, Rosicky, Diaby and importantly, Gibbs all out for this clash while Walcott, Giroud, Szczesny, Chamberlain, Arteta and Sagna all face late fitness tests and this could have a big impact on our performance. Arsene Wenger this week pronouncing Gibbs’ injury as “long term” fills me with dread and suggests we should start looking for a solid left back replacement since neither Vermaelen or Santos have really impressed in his stead.

The news is no better for Tottenham however with several key players out injured the biggest being Dembele who is capable of radically altering any Spurs match efforts. But they are also missing Parker, Kaboul and Assou Ekkoto while Defoe, Walker and Lennon all face late tests to see if they will feature so in a way this normally intense North London Derby is a ‘battle of the less wounded’. That’s not to say it won’t be a fierce contest it always is, even if we had to field nothing but our under 21 reserves they’d still go out there fueled by a burning desire to smash Spurs all the way back to White Hart Lane. Spurs are a very different team from the one we trounced 5-2 last season, ‘Ol Arry’ has departed along with the danger men in their midfield like Modric and Van der Vaart, only that young upstart Bale remains of their winning formula and Villas Boas has changed their tactics somewhat. Spurs usually setup in a 4-2-3-1 formation and play a fairly high line, choosing to counter-attack as their main offensive, something that a speedy player like Theo Walcott may be able to exploit. The 3 man midfield means that Arteta and Wilshere will be under pressure all match and may mean that Cazorla has to drop deep to modify our formation to a 4-5-1 instead of our preferred 4-4-2, isolating Giroud a bit up front.

Spurs have leaked a fair few goals so far this season and Arsenal’s defense lately has resembled that of a pub team so we may in for a high scoring affair from both teams. Given that without the partnership of Gibbs and Podolski our left wing is fairly ineffective as an attacking avenue, I think one of the key matchups will be Walcott vs Vertonghen on our right wing. With Spurs playing their 3 man midfield this may prove to be our only solid means of scoring goals with Walcott crossing for Giroud in the box and so it’s crucial that our inconsistent star player actually delivers in this match. Defensively speaking I believe we can handle any threat Spurs can bring, Sagna vs Bale is always a good contest to watch but their main issue in recent games has been Clint Dempsey playing as a passenger in the secondary striker role, rather than getting involved and almost every promising counter-attack they’ve had has been broken down by his slow passing reactions just in front of the midfield. Since with Dembele out he is the main man to link up any attacking thrust this will help us immensely to defend against them. The other main threat that will need containing will be Defoe’s poaching up front. He’s been in decent form and is their leading goal scorer, although he does face a late fitness test and may not feature which of course would mean fielding that old target of the crowd’s abuse, Adebayor…

So it’s really down to the players in the end. Wilshere in particular is key to our midfield working properly, so far nobody save Diaby has managed to play properly in the double pivot next to Arteta and it’s about time this changed. Wilshere’s drive and box to box mid style of play would seem an ideal match to Arteta’s disciplined approach it just comes down to how fit the lad is since he’s still returning from injury. We need Jack to be running back deep in defense to allow Arteta to push forwards at times and crucially, shake his marker that Spurs are sure to employ in the form of Dempsey. If  we can do this we stand a very good chance of winning this match comfortably, our overall player quality is more than enough across the pitch to give Spurs hell, plus we have great options off the bench such as Arshavin, Ramsey and Chamberlain, although I wish to god that Tomas Rosicky was available as an impact sub after his performance for us in this fixture last year. I believe we will score goals but defending against Spurs comes down to 4 key things.

1. Theo Walcott vs Jan Vertonghen
2. Wilshere’s energy and understanding of his role in the double pivot.
3. Laurent Koscielny’s marking in and around the box of Jermain Defoe.
4. Vermaelen and Podolski containing the left wing.
 

Tottenham Danger Men: Defoe, Sandro and Bale. Lennon although he’s doubtful to feature.

Result Prediction: I can’t imagine either side will keep a clean sheet but Szczesny hopefully back in goal we should be able to keep the tally down, whereas AVB’s mysterious decision to play Friedel in goals rather than the newly bought Hugo Lloris should see a few goals scored. 3-2 Arsenal.

Predicted Lineup: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Sagna, Podolski, Arteta, Wilshere, Walcott, Cazorla, Giroud

Conclusion: Tottenham will look to press our midfield of 2 with their 3 man advantage and try to hit us hard on the break. Arsenal will look to contain any thrusts on our left, drive hard at their center to utilise Wilshere’s enthusiasm and hit hard through Walcott out wide putting low crosses into the box for Giroud to finish. Podolski will also be used as a counter-attacking option on our left wing. Should be a great match up as always! COYG!

Match Review: Arsenal 3 – 3 Fulham, What went wrong?…

So close but in reality quite far from the polished performance we were hoping for. Fulham controlled the first half adopting their typical style of keeping possession in their own half with the occasional forray up our left wing, tempting Arsenal to come and get the ball. It worked but not the way that Fulham had hoped as we managed to score twice against the run of play, the first off our only attack forward and the resultant corner(a case of quality over quantity) and the second from catching a player in possession deep in his own half. However it didn’t last and it’s notable that once again the mistakes came from our left wing where Vermaelen was at left back. Podolski once again failed to track back properly giving Vermaelen too much work to do on numerous occasions and the inevitable crosses found their mark and cost us dearly. Podolski also gave away the foul(and a string of others!) for their first goal and in general didn’t have a great game despite scoring.

On the second goal I really feel that Mannone should’ve kept that out, a header from 15 yards out can only travel so fast and he had plenty of time to react to it and make a proper diving attempt rather than falling sideways and fumbling at it and I will be very glad when Szczesny is back between the posts for us. If I was too get overly critical you could say he should’ve also come for the corner that Berbatov scored their first from as it was in the six yard box which is the keeper’s territory on corners. Defensively speaking though, it’s clear that teams recognise our left wing as being the more vulnerable area to attack us from, hopefully the return of Kieran Gibbs into the side will help to change this. In the middle Arsenal looked a little dis-jointed with Fulham applying plenty of pressure on us, Ruiz in particular was a large physical problem for the team to deal with and it would’ve been nice to have Diaby available to manhandle him a little. I’ve chosen to use heatmaps in this review to really illustrate the problems we had in this game and why we didn’t have a better result.Firstly a comparison of the way our two wings operated in this match and the 1st thing I notice is the lack of effort in defense by both wingers. Walcott in general tracks back well and helps out Sagna and in the first half of the season Podolski did this also. In this match however Walcott was purely offensive playing high up the pitch, pinning back Riise and trying to beat the offside trap while Podolski was content to stay pretty much in midfield and not make strong runs to the corner. The comparison between Sagna and Vermaelen shows the difference between a truly professional fullback and a center back playing out of his comfort zone. Sagna ran up and down the wing tirelessly all game, creating overlaps for Walcott and covering his marker in defense, whereas Vermaelen tried to stay near the halfway line and influence play from there, occasionally cutting inwards in attack and dropping very deep in defense. Looking at the charts it’s probably a good thing that Fulham didn’t try to expose our right wing as well as the defensive performance that Walcott usually produces(and makes up for his attacking inconsistency!) was sorely lacking in this match.

Now for the game changer and the reason why we looked far better once Ramsey came on despite scoring goals in the first half, Coquelin’s movement, or lack thereof. In this game I was expecting that with Coquelin in midfield, given that he’s defensive minded Arteta would be able to push further forward and influence play more by linking up closely with Cazorla. I could not have been more wrong. The heatmap shows it plainly, rather than staying deep and defending the back 4, Coquelin chose to hold position on the half way line and remain static. This resulted in Arteta having to run back and forth all match, both influencing play in attack and defending deeper than the supposedly defensive minded Coquelin. Coquelin’s lack of involvement in this match borders on criminal when you compare the stats above. This is not how a double pivot works and this is why we failed to control the midfield and create more chances in the first half. Add to that Cazorla was again forced to drop deep to get the ball because of this and we went back to playing in a 4-5-1 isolating Giroud somewhat and it’s to Giroud’s credit that his massive workrate allowed him to still be such a focal point up front for us in the center forward position. A lot of people will say that Ramsey made mistakes and was dispossessed often but what he did do right is give us drive going forwards, even if it didn’t win the game for us. He provided the offensive thrust that Coquelin just couldn’t do and eased the workload on Arteta.

Ok so that takes care of the negatives for this match apart from Arteta’s penalty miss which to be honest was a harsh penalty in the first place. The inconsistency of the refereeing in this match was laughable however it was balanced ie bad towards both teams. Podolski could’ve easily seen red in the first half for about 4 poorly timed tackles that went unpunished and it was hilarious for me when Phil Dowd reached to his back pocket(where the red card is) to send off Sidwell for a second yellow, only to realise that he was THE ONLY PLAYER on the pitch that he’d bothered to card despite the challenges flying in and changed his mind last second, issuing Ramsey a yellow instead for holding the man on the ball. The handball at the end was similarly poor judgement as the player had his arms by his side and didn’t play at the ball so if it had been scored it would’ve been harsh on Fulham. The fact that Arteta missed was no less than we deserved in this game although 3 points would’ve been nice and I don’t blame him for the miss either as it was well struck and Schwarzer produced a very fine save to keep it out. Schwarzer is quite well known for saving penalties so it didn’t come as a huge suprise. The thing I truly loved about both the penalty given away and the one missed is the grief-stricken reaction from Arteta. This guy truly bleeds red and white and really loves the club. If half the players on the pitch felt the same way we wouldn’t have these problems to begin with.

So on to the positives. Gibbs is returning to the side next week and with opposing teams targeting his wing as our biggest weakness it will be nice to have a true fullback to influence the attack and defense again. His chemistry with Podolski can also not be overlooked and hopefully Podolski will return to the sparkling form he showed us at the start of the season when most people thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. Szczesny in goal again will likewise boost the side, giving confidence to our back 4 as well as putting a stop to cheap goals being conceded(he definitely would’ve saved goal no.2). Ramsey and Chamberlain have both recovered from knocks and add much needed depth to our team and the other bonus is Wilshere returning from suspension and the man who lifted us last season, Tomas Rosicky reportedly fit to play again at long last. In this match, Arsenal seemed to regain their scoring ability somewhat and a lot of it is down to Giroud up front. This man just keeps getting better and better for us and the more the players learn his style of play, the more he will continue to impress us. Walcott in particular should be able to make good use of him with low dangerous crosses whipped into the six yard box.

Overall I don’t see the need to panic just yet, we managed to score two goals while being outplayed in the first half and then failed to win the game when we played better in the second which is more amusing than anything else. Gibbs impact on the team cannot be underestimated and I expect us to play a lot better next week when we host our lily-white nemesis in the form of Tottenham Hotspurs. I do think however that players like Arteta, Podolski and Cazorla(our absolutely key players!) are in much need of a few matches off to rest. The fatigue of having played nearly every minute for Arsenal so far this season is clearly showing in their increased errors and less dominant performances and is key to getting our season back on track. Lastly Koscielny and Mertesacker did quite well in this match despite the goals conceded and with Gibbs returning at left back I’m rather hoping that Vermaelen doesn’t replace him in the center back position once more as it’s clear which one is in better form at the moment. Nevermind the captain’s armband, rest Vermaelen and give the armband to Arteta!

A much need weeks rest and then Spurs next, let’s give em hell and show them there’s only one club in North London!

Come On You Gunners!

Match Preview: Arsenal vs Fulham

So after a frustrating mid-week in Germany we host Fulham at the Emirates. Fulham have 1 win in their last 5 and are in worse form than we are. They’ve had little trouble scoring in their games but defensively they’ve been very poor so considering that we’ve had trouble scoring lately and been reasonably solid in defense, it is on paper an interesting contest. Fulham have been particulalry vulnerable to attacks down the wings this season and it’s a real pity that Gibbs will not feature in this match as their right back Riether is a weak point that can be exposed and Damien Duff infront of him is susceptible to giving away fouls and making errors. During our mid-week game Santos was benched in favour of Vermaelen at left back and while he offered nothing going forwards, he did help tighten up our defense a little. But this will not help us to expose Riether so we must look to the right wing where Walcott vs Riise promises to be an intriguing battle. In the center is where Fulham are strongest although that’s not to say we can’t outplay them here as well, I just think it’s more prudent to attack down our right wing with the combination of Sagna and Walcott.

The center poses quite the conundrum in this game since Fulham’s strongest play is through the center. Our own midfield is diminished with Wilshere suspended and Ramsey doubtful. On top of this Cazorla needs rest and has been less effective in recent matches although a lot of this is due to teams pressuring our play-linking players like Arteta. I think Wenger will deploy Coquelin next to Arteta in the double pivot and the interesting part of this is that Coquelin is more defensive minded, tending to hold his position and use long balls to the forwards and wings for his passing output. To this end I’m hoping it will allow Arteta to advance further forward and influence the play and if this happens, Fulham could be in a very hard afternoon since his vision and passing is second in the team only to Cazorla. The idea of seeing Arteta playing closer to Cazorla is quite mouth watering, with Walcott running into space behind the lines. I am however a little worried about how effective Giroud will be up front since their defense is ideal for stopping him, they win the balls in the air a lot but do tend to stand off a bit and for this reason I’d like to see Giroud drop a little deeper to his normal positioning and shoot fron range a few times. Likewise Cazorla should put their keeper under some pressure with some long range attempts.

Speaking of long range attempts, Fulham are fans of this approach as well and with the likes of Berbatov and Rodellega up front I’m sure they’ll be doing plenty of that. Our defense will really need to be on their toes and Mertesacker in particular will have to close down players looking to line up a shot, a bit quicker than he normally does. Fulham also pose a threat off corners although I’m less and less concerned about this these days, Duff and Hangeland are big threats in the air that will need to be marked on corners and set pieces however. Fulham are known for being clinical with their chances so if we’re not keyed up in defense expect our team to be punished. I’m rather hoping Wenger puts Szczesny back between the posts for this one since I feel any loose balls spilled by Mannone from their long range attempts could be gobbled up by a predatory striker like Berbatov.

Fulham Danger Men: Rodellega, Berbatov, Hangeland(from set pieces).

Result Prediction: Unlikely we’ll keep a clean sheet but the players will keen to improve from mid-week and Fulham are pretty horrid at protecting a lead. If we score one we’ll get another so I’ll say 3-1 Arsenal.

Predicted Lineup: Mannone, Vermaelen, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Sagna, Podolski, Arteta, Coquelin, Walcott, Cazorla, Giroud.

Conclusion: Fulham will look to keep the ball in their own half and hit us hard if we commit too many bodies forward. Arsenal will look to control the middle without over-committing, the weak combo of Vermaelen and Podolski on the left should ensure that our play is channeled through the right wing of Walcott. Expect a pretty stale contest until the second half when the game should open up.

An added bonus this week will be that we hopefully get to see Tomas Rosicky return to the team as a sub. Oh and as always,

Come On You Gunners!

Match Preview: Arsenal vs Queens Park Rangers

Ok so 2 losses in a row and the mood in the Arsenal camp desperately needs to change by beating QPR. We host them at the Emirates which is a shame seeing as I think our enthusiastic away fans might just motivate the team a bit more than the dreary old men that make up our home support, eating scones and erupting into polite applause whenever we score before going silent once more and sipping their tea.

Queens Park Rangers are currently last in the league so let’s keep it that way! I really don’t want to see another lack lustre performance like we witnessed vs Norwich, at least the players tried a bit harder against Schalke even if they were unsuccessful. On paper this match is quite intriguing since both teams play quite similar styles. QPR setup in a 4-4-2 formation and tend to attack down their right wing through Shaun Wright-Phillips before teeing up Bobby Zamora, while on their left flank, QPR deploy Park Ji Sung on the wing and he tends to play inwards releasing Fabio from fullback to provide width, much like our own combination play by Gibbs and Podolski. So with this in mind it’s quite likely Wenger will place Ramsey at right wing to stifle Park’s movement and since the two of them like to drift inwards it’s quite likely the pair will nullify each other, meaning play must come from our left wing or though the middle. One plus side for us is that Park Ji Sung is 50/50 to play in this one with a recovering knee injury.

To this end I think Arsenal should attack through the center to be succesful, I have full confidence in the ability of Arteta and Coquelin to outplay the combination of Granero and Faurlin in order to dominate play. On the left wing however I fear for us yet again with Kieran Gibbs reportedly still out injured for this one, meaning Santos will once again play at left back. As explained in previous match reviews, Santos and Podolski on the left is a bad combination and I would dearly love to see Giroud at left wing for this match while Podolski who has played almost every minute for us this season, could probably do with a match off to rest.

Defensively this is a good game to regain confidence and keep a clean sheet. Zamora is a threat we need to watch carefully and Granero is fond of putting through balls to him. I live in hope that Koscielny will start the match next to Mertesacker but it’s more likely that Vermaelen will be the other center back next to the BFG. Vermaelen will have to be on his toes to intercept the passes from Granero and unlike against Schalke, he’d better keep an eye on Zamora at all times as he’ll be too quick for Mertesacker to successfully track. QPR are also fans of shooting from range so let’s hope we avoid any more annoying tap ins like the goal that sunk us when we played Norwich. Mannone will have to be on his toes and our defense will have to close players down quicker when they move into dangeorus shooting positions.

Queens Park Rangers Danger Men: Shaun Wright Phillips and Bobby Zamora

Predicted Result: I’m being optimistic here since the players are still going to be fatigued from all the recent matches. If we play decently we should win. Arsenal 2 – 0 QPR.

Expected Lineup: 4-4-2 formation – Mannone, Santos, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Jenkinson, Podolski, Arteta, Coquelin, Ramsey, Cazorla, Giroud. I cannot stress enough how much I hope I’m wrong about this lineup, this will destroy our left wing attack as it has in the past 2 games. Podolski needs rest and Giroud should deputise for him at left wing.

Conclusion: A game that we should win if the players put in the effort. QPR’s away record is abysmal but they have shown signs of improvement and have held both Chelsea and Everton to a draw so far. Our players are going to be fatigued from the recent match congestion and this will affect our chances. I think if Arsenal try to attack through the center it’s our best chance of pulling off a win, this will come down to how well Coquelin can function as a defensive anchor, allowing Arteta to influence the match closer to Cazorla.

Match Preview: Arsenal vs Schalke 04

Redemption. That’s what this match is. After a disgusting display vs Norwich City away, this is a chance for the team to prove their credentials against the toughest team in their Champions League group. I don’t even mind if they lose as long as they give it everything they have this time.  Schalke at the Emirates on paper looks to be an exciting game. Both teams are capable of explosive attacking displays and also horrendous defensive errors. Schalke tend to play a 4-2-3-1 formation, though against strong teams they’ve been known to play a 4-1-4-1 also. However in a game of this importance I believe Huub Stevens will go for a familiar approach and play 4-2-3-1.

Out of form or not, Arsenal have a fearsome record in the Champions League at the Emirates, having not lost a match since 2003 and Schalke will find us tough to beat regardless of our current injury woes and defensive lapses. They are a team that plays possession football and prefer to attack on the counter either through the middle via Lewis Holtby, or down their right wing through Jefferson Farfan. Due to this style they are defensively a very compact team, tough to break down in the final third. Up front they have tricky attacking players who are good at beating a defender and creating chances, while defensively they are strong at defending set pieces but do tend to give away silly fouls and  technically proficient wingers can get in behind them and cause trouble.

Unfortunately for Schalke they will have to do without the promising young attacking player Julian Draxler who is out with a broken wrist as well as two of their best defenders Kyriakos Papadopoulos and Christoph Metzelder which will make commentators breathe a sigh of relief since by the time they’ve pronounced his name he no longer has the ball. “Papadop… Papadolopous, Papado fk this”.. Schalke do however have decent players to cover these losses in particular Affelay is quite the attacking threat in Draxler’s absence. As for Arsenal’s injury woes, Wilshere and Sagna will not feature just yet and the ongoing injury saga of Diaby will keep him out of the side(till 2020). The biggest loss however is Gibbs being out injured for 1 week, meaning Santos will deputise at Left Back and as I’ve mentioned in my review of the Norwich travesty, Podolski was rendered useless by the positioning of Santos. Whether this can be ammended in this game is anyone’s guess but it’s a headache Wenger will certainly have to deal with.

Now the good news. Schalke don’t defend aggressively, preferring to stay compact. What this does is create less pressure on our midfield and in particular Cazorla who will hopefully be able to use the extra space to our advantage. As I mentioned, Schalke attack primarily through the middle so it will be critical that Arsenal control this area of the pitch more than any other. Starting Coquelin next to Arteta in the double pivot and Ramsey at Right Mid should create a more defensively robust midfield, effectively refusing the right flank as an attacking option and concentrating our strengths on the middle and left wing attack. The big conundrum is up front, Gervinho or Giroud? In this game I would favour Gervinho as his movement and dribbling is exactly what Schalke don’t like to defend against. This game will probably be decided by our midfield trio and to this end I’d like to see Cazorla playing deeper than usual and really forming a midfield triangle with Arteta and Coquelin in order to dictate play. Coquelin’s defensive instincts may also allow Arteta to surge forwards and become more involved in our offensive movements and I’m sure we’d all love to see that.

Defensively for us I’d like to see Vermaelen benched after all his recent mistakes and the fact that Koscielny is fit to start once more. Mertesacker will be key for us since he knows the German League very well and knows what to expect from Schalke. Also Schalke’s primary scoring threat Huntelaar isn’t exactly the fastest striker around and our BFG should have no problem tracking his movements around the pitch. Stopping Schalke from scoring relies on Mertesacker denying Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Koscielny or Vermaelen effectively breaking up the close passing play between Holtby and Huntelaar. Holtby in particular loves trying through balls and we will need an alert Center Back to nip in quickly and prevent these sort of balls.

Schalke 04 Danger Men: Their front 4 are a real threat, Affelay,Farfan,Holtby and Huntelaar. In particular, a lot of their attacking play flows through Holtby while Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is one of the most feared strikers in the German League.

Result Prediction: After the last match vs Norwich who knows? If the boys come out and prove themselves I predict a 2-1 win for Arsenal but this could easily become 2-2.

Expected Lineup: 4-2-3-1 formation – Mannone, Santos, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Jenkinson, Arteta, Coquelin, Podolski, Cazorla, Ramsey, Gervinho.

Conclusion: The players have a lot to prove after the atrocity at Carrow Road. Expect to see the gunners come out firing and attack with purpose. It’s a match that should be very exciting and very close. Make no mistake Schalke will not yield easily but I have faith in our boys and our home record in the Champions League to get a win in this one.

A decade of profits (with make-up)

Recently Peter Hill-Wood has told the media that Arsenal Football Club has made a  profit of more than £35 million. While this is all nice I don’t think many fans of the club realise that this means that the last time the club has made a loss was in 2002, when the club recorded a £22 million loss. In other words: Arsenal have been through a decade of profit and have amassed a  stunning £248 million over the course of the past 10 years of which 77% (£191 million) was made in the last 5 years. Arsenal is not the first club to achieve a decade of profits as Bayern Münich has entered their 19th consecutive season recording a profit.

Just a quick glance at the above figure might give the illusion that the club is heading in the right direction, but the devil lives in the details so lets take a closer look at this years profit. To clarify the sales of Robin van Persie and Alex Song are not recorded in the 2012 profits since the end of the fiscal years is not on the same day as new years. So the 2012 accounts have the sales of Nasri, Fabrégas, and Clichy in them but not Van Persie, and Song.

Breaking down the £191 million

We are extremely dependant on 2 things: Players sales, and property development. Without the £2,5 million profit from property developments and the £65,5 million profit from player sales we would have made a sizeable loss of £31 million in 2012. In fact player sales have accounted for 80-90% (about £160-170 million) of our profits in the last 5 years. What this means is that the club has become reliant on player sales to maintain sustainability. Have you ever felt in the past 5 years that the Arsenal squad is a player or two away from title contention? Well this is the reason why. Although the sales of each player can be individually explained (Fabregas wanted to go back to Barcelona; Song had bad discipline) we should take a step back and take a look at the trend that has occurred in the past years: Arsenal has slowly turned into a competitive selling club! (My definition of competitive here is qualifying to the UEFA Champions League)

Now not everything is gloomy: We are still capable of staying competitive on the pitch (thanks to smart investment due to scouting) but title contention is highly improbable. Also thanks to our sustainability we won’t have to walk down the road of Malága, Milan, and Inter who had to part ways from their experienced, expensive players. Heck even Manchaster City was more restrained on the transfer market! The fact that we are run on a sustainable business model means that we will (most probably) always have funds to invest in the squad; however our title contention will be decided, to a large extent, by the lack of transfer dealings by our competitors.

The profit with make-up

Have you ever had a girlfriend who looked stunning with make-up on but once she took it off she wasn’t as hot? Well if not you are soon going to find out what that feels like: Our £35 million profit hides our inefficiency in generating revenue growth. In fact if we exclude property development we have generated a negative operating profit. Of course with property development included we are still making an operating profit but if the current trend keeps up we wont be doing so for long as the Highbury Square property is almost completely sold. The fact that turnover has dropped to £7,7 million from last years £30,3 million in the property segment reflects this. The rise in overall staff costs  from £124,4 million to £143,3 million had an impact on our operating profit as well. This rise in our wage bill can be attributed to our late signings last season. The good news is that the club has learnt from its mistake and concluded its deals well before transfer deadline day. The bad news is that our wage bill (and operating expenses) has grown at a faster rate than our revenue.

Deloitte Money League
(£ mil)
2011 Rev 2010 Rev
1 Real Madrid 433 359.1
2 Barcelona 407 325.9
3 Manchester United 331.4 286.4
4 Bayern Münich 290.3 264.5
5 Arsenal 226.8 224.4
6 Chelsea 225.6 209.5
7 AC Milan 212.3 199.8
8 Internazionale 190.9 184.1
9 Liverpool 183.6 184.5
10 Schalke 04 182.8 139.8
Exchange rate: £1 = € 1.1073 (30-June-2011)

Since I mentioned revenue it is time to look at our biggest weakness: Weak revenue growth due to sub-par commercial revenue. If we look at our revenue we are in the financial elite of Europe standing firm on 5th place with a revenue of £225,4 million last year (Deloitte numbers are not exactly the reported figures of Arsenal due to exchange rates changing). In fact it was reported in May 31 that our revenues have increased to £235,3 million from £225,4 million. which is only surpassed by Manchester Uniteds £320 million in the Premier League. While this might seem impressive Arsenal has only managed to increase their revenue by £10 million in 3 years while Manchester Untied was capable of achieving a £42 million revenue growth in the same time frame.

The biggest defect of Arsenal is its commercial revenue. The reason behind this is the Emirates Stadium: Arsenal had to tie itself down in long term deals to finance the Emirates stadium. The good news is that the Arsenal Board recognises this, hence the Asia tour which attracted commercial partners; however we are still lagging behind Manchester United in this area who are capable of attracting a lot more secondary commercial partners than Arsenal do. However we should not look at this and claim the Asia tour was useless as it is one of the factors behind our £10 million Revenue growth in the past 3 years.

However as Milton Friedman has already said “there ain’t such a thing as a free lunch” and just like everything the Asia tour has costs associated with them. The biggest of these is that the team does not have as much time to gel, not to mention possible injuries. These might not seem like  financial costs but they have an effect on performance on the pitch. And performance on the pitch will have a huge impact on profitability and commercial attractiveness. Long story short: Our Asia tour can attract commercial partners and have an uplift on our revenue growth but such a tour will have an impact on team chemistry come the first week of the league.

The promised land of 2014. The year our shirt deals expire. Many people expect our commercial revenue problems to be solved that year simply because both our shirt  sponsorship and shirt producing deals are pathetically bad and improving on them is a must. The board recognises this: Gazidis has claimed that “in terms of the financial impact, it will be as significant a step forward as the stadium was in 2005”, but if Arsenal FC truly want it to have as huge of an impact as the Emirates Stadium was than the commercial team and Tom Fox have their work cut out for them.

Now many fans will possibly lean back and say: “Who cares. Financial Fair Play is around the corner” and while this is true we must understand that FFP will benefit the teams with the highest revenue, as these are the teams that can spend most on their squad. As I have tried to convey Arsenal has limited to no revenue growth and if it wants to be a leading powerhouse in FFP, solving this is a priority.

What this all means

The point of this analysis is to show the reader how dependant Arsenal is on player sales. It does not need to be this way though. If Arsenal want to be title contenders then revenue growth and operating profit have to be tackled by the Arsenal board. Revenue growth can be achieved by increasing commercial revenue, since Arsenal is behind the curve in this area. The shirt deals will expire in 2014 (the promised land) and the new deals will lessen our dependence on player sales if negotiated correctly.Tackling operational loss making is tougher as it need wage re-structuring. That means the team has to try and renegotiate its wages and try and get rid off “deadwood”. We have seen Arsenal doing the latter by shipping Bendtner, Park, and Denilson out on a loan deal thus decreasing its wage bill but getting rid of unwanted players is imperative to Arsenals success. If neither of the issues are tackled then we will see more reports of profits… with make-up.